In a move that might offer a small sigh of relief to motorists, the federal government of Pakistan is expected to slightly reduce petrol and diesel prices in its upcoming bi-weekly fuel price review. This development follows a sharp upward trend in fuel prices witnessed since the beginning of June 2025.
Petrol and Diesel Prices May Dip After Consistent Hikes
Recent data and market insights shared by the brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited (AHL) indicate that the government has enough fiscal breathing room to slightly slash petroleum product prices. According to AHL’s estimates, petrol prices could potentially drop by Rs. 6.82 per liter, while high-speed diesel (HSD) prices might fall by Rs. 1.68 per liter.
If implemented, these reductions would bring the petrol price down to approximately Rs. 265.33 per liter, while diesel would settle at around Rs. 282.67 per liter.
A Look Back: What Triggered the Surge Since June?
Fuel prices in Pakistan have been on a steep upward trajectory since June 1. Back then, petrol was priced at Rs. 253.63 per liter and high-speed diesel at Rs. 254.64 per liter. Over the past two months, these rates have surged consistently, with petrol now standing at Rs. 272.15 and diesel at Rs. 284.35 per liter—reflecting a Rs. 18.52 and Rs. 29.71 increase respectively.
This rise has been largely attributed to international crude oil price fluctuations, currency depreciation, and adjustments in government-imposed levies.
What’s Driving the Possible Price Cut Now?
Even though prices have increased, the recent downward revision window is because of a combined effect of international oil market forces and the appreciation of the Pakistani Rupee against the US dollar. The international marker Brent crude has experienced some weakening in recent times, which has enabled Pakistan’s petroleum product import bill to stabilize by a narrow margin.
Moreover, a less volatile exchange rate in recent weeks has contributed to a reduced cost of oil imports. These favorable shifts provide the government with a chance to pass on the benefits to the public in the form of reduced fuel prices, albeit slightly.
Will the Govt Actually Cut Prices?
That’s the million-rupee question. While the data from AHL is encouraging, the final decision rests with the federal government and the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA). They consider a host of factors including:
- Global oil price trends
- Exchange rate fluctuations
- Inland freight costs
- Petroleum Levy (PL) and General Sales Tax (GST) targets
Therefore while economic fundamentals demand a modest cut, the fiscal needs and revenue needs of the government may be felt in the pricing decision ultimately arrived at.
Why a Small Relief Does Matter
In a country where inflation has been high and the cost of living has been painful, even a Rs. 6 cut in petrol prices can be a major thing for the average Pakistani citizen. Cheap fuel is likely to mean cheap transport, and cheap transport can keep the prices of common goods and services in general.
It also increases consumer confidence, particularly that of daily commuters, transporters, and small businesses that depend on mobility.